Music Business Pioneer Says IPod Will Soon Be ObsoleteMy first reaction was skeptical, but after reading the article, I practically smacked my forehead with the realization of Ruben was getting at. I wouldn't think this should be any great surprise for anyone who spends time
really thinking about the future of music purchases, but it sure was to me.
The iPod really is an amazing piece of technology, and it is fantastically easy to use. This does
not, however, guarantee that the iPod, or even any MP3 player will be a hot item for much longer. The changeover, like VHS to DVD, won't be overnight ("soon be obsolete" = years, not months) due to initial high prices and reduced availability, but I'm convinced now, like Ruben, that it will happen if the big music companies take advantage of the changing trends.
So, what do we know that supports this theory?
- The trend is increasingly that everything is being connected to the Internet
- In the entertainment world, the path chosen for new services and products is consistently and reliably the most convenient for the consumer.
So, in summary,
something we want, whether it be music or video, is delivered to us via
something we have. Six years ago, I carried a mobile phone, PDA, and MP3 player. Now it is common to find all three combined. A large number of phones now come with the ability to sync or download music to them, which are accommodated by miniaturized removable storage media, or large amounts of onboard memory.
My point here, without going into too much technical detail, is that iTunes is just a
crutch. iTunes is there because the MP3 player and the phone aren't quite able to manage their own music libraries yet. The big point is that the only reason why the music is still stored on the phone and MP3 player is because the wireless signal speed and quality aren't quite good enough and cheap enough for your entire library to be stored online.
Here's what seems likely to me in the near future, if and when the music giants jump on the subscription idea:
- 3G and faster wireless networks will be able to log in with their subscription and have the ability to access a theoretically limitless (only by your pocketbook) music library.
- You never have to worry about losing your music
- You never have to worry about syncing your music
- You never have to worry about running out of space
- You will be able to connect to the same library from your PC or Car - they may even be able to sustain a dynamic session (see below)
- If someone could work out the kinks, a product like this could have some neat features, like a dynamic session that could move from device to device. In an example:
- You wake up to your alarm - music playing via your computer.
- When you leave your house from work, you put on headphones (wireless by now) that connect to your mobile phone via bluetooth. Your mobile phone, connected to your music library with the same account, doesn't miss a beat, and picks up exactly where the music in your house left off (ok, maybe not exactly - mobile phones would probably have greater latency than a PC with landline broadband).
- You walk to your car and get in. If it is a newer car, you turn off your mobile phone, as your car also has an Internet connection, and the music again picks up more or less where you left off.
- You drive to work and park your car. If you can't be separated from your music, the mobile phone and headphones again come out.
- You walk into work, sit down at your desk, and log into your PC. If your company allows it, you have the option to continue listening to the same music library via your work computer. If it is forbidden, most places will allow you to continue using your mobile phone as a music player. Note that at this point in the future, unlimited mobile data packages are much more common, as they are necessary to use such a streaming music service.
- The point is that a session is kept active across multiple devices, so that you never have to stop, start over, or lose your place in music or other audio (like audio books). This could even be done without keeping a session active, by just recording the "last item played" and "time elapsed" for that item.
- This type of music service would probably be added to mobile phone service packages as an incentive to buy, or sign on for a multiyear service agreement.
- As an added bonus, I see much less potential for piracy, when it becomes commonplace for people to stream their music directly from the source
- The car piece of the scenario above is significant. Many people want to listen to their music libraries in their cars. For that reason, cars in the future will have this feature built in. This means that the whole FM transmitter, tape adapter, aux in port, iPod-connector-in-the-glovebox industry will disappear pretty quickly. However, you'd probably still be able to play the music from your phone through the car stereo via Bluetooth, if the car couldn't connect to the Internet to play the music directly, that is.
And of course, I have to cover the downsides:
- When your link to the Internet is gone, so is your music (keep that "old" iPod around for camping trips!)
- Less mainstream music and audio will be slower to migrate to these services, if ever. Local and independent music may never be available on such a service, unless the technology used is opened up and made available separately from the services, making DIY independent streaming music catalogs possible.
- You don't have a feeling of ownership, as you can't manipulate or back up your music. Furthermore, labels under legal or other pressure could change a song on you after you've purchased it, potentially changing your purchase into something else entirely. This would be something to look for in the sure-to-be-coming license agreements.
So, I've probably missed a few things, but those are my ideas based on Rubin's prediction.
